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TWISTEX fielding: Project end

June 28, 2009 – 4:01 pm

Today marks the end of the TWISTEX 2009 program.  Although our program runs until the end of the month, a ridge has settled in across the midwest, therefore eliminating any future missions.

June 27th:

Targeted southwest South Dakota for possible severe storms.  One isolated storm initiated in Julesburg, Colorado, and the anvil overspread most of Nebraska and southwest portions of South Dakota. Later, several storms initiated along the advancing cold front, thus the tornado potential dropped significantly.  Team members followed the line of storms east from Valentine, Nebraska, where straight line winds snapped a power pole about 200 meters in front of the Probe vehicle.

Team stayed in Norfolk, Nebraska for the evening.

Yesterday, June 28:

Advancing cold front through Iowa and veering winds aloft provided little opportunities for operations.  Teams returned home.

************

I would like to thank everybody for their efforts this year.  We have collected datasets from numerous storms since late April.

A reminder that this is a GROUP project, where it takes several talented scientists, meteorologists, engineers, students, and gifted individuals to conduct a project of this magnitude.

A special thanks to the following participants:

Co-PIs Bruce Lee and Cathy Finley:  Bruce and Cathy provided excellent guidance and overview of the new Mobile Mesonet (MM) instrumentation development, and fielding.  They were also the field coordinators for the MM placements during operations.  Bruce and Cathy piloted M1.  These two scientists also provided (and continue to provide) professional ‘peer review’ of all our scientific objectives to ensure that our field measurements meets strict guidelines.  This is a very important step so that the collected data is reviewed and eventually accepted within the scientific community.

Matt Grzych:  Matt has wrote the new mobile mesonet software that was used for this year.  He has spent several hundred hours writing new Labview code for the newly purchased data loggers.  Matt also joined us in the field several times in M3.

Tony Laubach:  Tony was with the TWISTEX group 100% of the time and provided excellent support driving M3, and was the MM lead when Bruce and Cathy were not able to join us.  Certainly Tony kept our spirits high 100% of the time.

Carl Young:  Carl was my partner in Probe, and was with our mission nearly 100%.  Carl’s assistance with forecasting was fantastic.  His cheerful attitude and team spirit is always very much appreciated.

Chris Karstens:  Chris’ participation was certainly key for this year. He developed the software scripts for live placements and data of all the MMs in the field over a radar display that was used in the field by all teams.  Chris also participated in nearly every mission.  Chris was in M2.  He also assisted with several hardware items for the MM vehicles, and was always ready to help where ever needed.  We all wish him luck as he begins his journey for his PhD.

Ed Grubb:  Ed assisted in M3 with Tony.  Ed tried his best to keep Tony within ’spec’, but was difficult at times.  He was always ready to help with anything-and was great to have aboard.

Jeff Duda:  Jeff joined us in the field several times assisting with the duties in M2. His daily enthusiasm was great to have in the field.

Jayson Prentice:  Congrats to Jayson and Alyssa for the birth of new son, Braydon James on May 12 of this year.  Due to their new ‘cumulus’ addition, Jayson was not able to participate with the fielding this year.  Jayson has provided near daily assistance/maintenance for our twistex.org website.  Hope you can return next year!

Paul Samaras:  Son Paul provided excellent video coverage of most events this year, including the large tornado north of Yankton, South Dakota on June 17th which the team intercepted and collected data buried inside of a large HP storm.

Bill Gallus, Partha Sarkar, and the rest of the participating ISU students:  TWISTEX group is very grateful for all of the program support for this year.  We look forward to continued collaborations with ISU for the future.

Andres, Brent, and Mike:  You guys hung tough with us all year long and was a real pleasure to have aboard.  We hope to have the chance to do it again next year.

Lisa Bloch, Bill Howard, Jim Ford, Brian Lovett (and everyone else in the ‘group’):  Thanks so much for your support this year.  TWISTEX had one of their best years to date, and we hope that our participation was worthwhile for you as well.

I also wish to thank my employers Fred Sandstrom and Joe Smith with Applied Research Associates, Inc., for their support and patience during this fielding.  It is very much appreciated.  I promise I’ll be ‘back to normal’ ASAP.

Certainly, there are other folks that I haven’t (or likely forgotten) mentioned, of which I appreciate your assistance this year.

Until next year!

Tim Samaras

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TWISTEX fielding: June 26, 2009

June 26, 2009 – 1:30 pm

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Today, June 26:

Location:  Chamberlain, South Dakota

Differing model solutions complicate today’s forecast.  Excellent mid level winds with incredible low level jet by evening should set the stage for severe storms.

Current target is south central South Dakota or north central Nebraska.  Convection is currently forecast to initiate east of the Black Hills area.

Tomorrow, June 27:

Cold front should move through the northern plains by early morning, with the front situated roughly in western Iowa.  Although there is a possibility of discreet storms forming along the cold front, it will likely be linear convection due to the upper wind profile and surface winds.

Operations are not likely tomorrow, but will evaluate in the morning.

Future:

TWISTEX 2009 will come to a close by Sunday due to a building ridge over the midwest.

Thanks!

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TWISTEX fielding: June 25, 2009

June 25, 2009 – 3:13 pm

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Today, June 25:

Location:  Lakewood, Colorado

Although today is a ferry day to the northern plains, its quite possible that we’ll see supercells within the Black Hills area near Southwest South Dakota.  Good moisture and enough shear is present for severe storms and possible tornadoes.

Denver crew will depart ~12 PM today with an initial target of Valentine Nebraska and/or points south.

Tomorrow, June 26:

Great moisture, and reasonable upper level flow seems to be in place for an active day in southeast South Dakota.  While model differences are present, most of the ingredients should be in place for supercells.

While too early to target an area, the general of Mitchell, SD will be the initial target with likely revisions by tomorrow.

For planning purposes, all teams should tentatively set the town as an initial target for early afternoon tomorrow (say by 2 PM).

Future:

It appears that a cold front will sweep through the northern plains area effectively eliminating any severe threat in the area.  It is possible that the front may slow to some degree by Saturday, providing one final opportunity for TWISTEX.

All teams will return either on Saturday or Sunday morning.

Its likely that TWISTEX program will come to a close after tomorrow.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 22, 2009

June 22, 2009 – 1:11 pm

Today, June 22:

Location:  Lakewood, Colorado

Today will be a down day for the TWISTEX group.  Even though a very slight risk of severe storms exists in the northern plains, group will be down for a few days for a much needed break from a very active period.

Future:

Model data suggests that the next opportunity may arrive by Thursday/Friday/Saturday of this week.  Strong southwest flow will be moving across the northern plains late in the week that may provide one last opportunity for TWISTEX operations.  This will be the final field trip of the year–if the opportunity is good enough.  Too far out to determine the quality of the potential mission and for any decision on departure date/times.

All team members should be prepared to cross the border into Canada if needed.  Passports are required now.

Many thanks to Mr. Carl Young for his significant contributions to the project.  His hard work and dedication to the project is very much appreciated.  Carl will not return this week for the possible final TWISTEX mission.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 20, 2009

June 20, 2009 – 9:46 am

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

June 18:

Targeted northcentral Iowa, cirrus plumb and a strong capping layer prevented storms from initiating.  Drove to Waterloo, Iowa for the evening.

Yesterday, June 19:

Yesterday’s supposed ‘big day’ turned into a huge complex of thunderstorms that initiated in eastern Nebraska/western Iowa, where the team targeted far southern Iowa where the flow was backed and where an outflow boundary was located.  Model data suggested that by early afternoon, the surface winds were to veer out quickly over the entire area.  Took a chance on the small window of opportunity with the disturbance moving through, but too many storms initiated along the I-35 corridor, and were moving rapidly to the east.  Terminated the mission by mid afternoon.  M1 and M2 returned home for a few days.  Drove to York, Nebraska for the night.

Today, June 20:

Location:  York, Nebraska

Today is a down day with a return drive to Denver. Group will ferry south to I-70, then west to Denver in hopes of possibly catching a rouge storm between the cloud breaks.  Reasonable wind shear and good moisture exists across central Kansas that would provide a good environment for rotating storms.

Will return to Denver tonight.

Tomorrow June 21:

Down.  Well-deserved break for all team members for a few days.  Ridge builds through the area with a trough in the west.

Future:

Model data suggests that several shortwaves will be pushing through the northern plains next week.  Pending the speed and significance of these disturbances, will determine if TWISTEX will have missions to the northern plains.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 18, 2009

June 18, 2009 – 7:14 am

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

June 16:

Intercepted tornado producing supercell northwest of Yankton, South Dakota.

Wedge-type tornado developed on the north side of the HP storm where the Probe vehicle was on the north side, and the other mesonet vehicles were on the south side.  Attempted deployment, but tornado was too close. Tornado passed between the two vehicles, where the circulation widened, and became completely rain-wrapped.  Mobile mesonets collected rare (likely first-ever) data from HP-type tornado.

Yesterday, June 17:

Target was Grand Island, Nebraska, however chose to move on earlier convection that initiated northwest of Marysville, KS.  Intercepted supercell thunderstorm south of Beatrice, Nebraska where the team collected data from intense rotation west of Oketo, Kansas.  Storm fell apart by mid afternoon, thus proceeded to drive to the original target of Grand Island, Nebraska.

Supercell storm initiated just north of Kearney, Nebraska in the incredibly high cape environment(RUC estimates were over 6,000 J/KG!). Storm produced several tornadoes where TWISTEX sampled with both mobile mesonets and in-situ probes.

Final tornado of the evening was fairly violent producing damage about 5 miles west of Aurora, Nebraska.  Mesonet teams had the tornado surrounded from the west, south, east, and north (probe vehicle) as the tornado moved to the east at a rather slow 10 knot pace.  Preliminary group discussions suggest that this strong tornado was likely the best sampled tornado so far for TWISTEX.

Bruce Lee/Cathy Finley did an astounding job of keep the mesonet vehicles coordinated through the fast-paced, and often dangerous mission.

Huge kudos for the entire TWISTEX team for a job well done!

Stayed in Lincoln, Nebraska for the evening.

Today, June 18:

Location:  Lincoln, Nebraska

Today is a very active day in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Tornadoes are likely today, with the potential of a few violent tornadoes.  Excellent shear, incredible cape and excellent moisture will keep the TWISTEX group busy today.

Mason, City, Iowa is our potential target, but will likely change.

Will try to make repairs to the rear window of the Probe vehicle that got blown out with debris from yesterday.

Tomorrow, June 19:

Tomorrow has the signs of a significant tornado outbreak for parts of Illinois and Indiana.  Good southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the upper midwest providing ideal conditions for numerous supercell thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.  Too early to decide on exact placement.

Future:

Current model data suggests an active couple of days for the northern plains early next week.  Will evaluate later.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 16, 2009

June 16, 2009 – 11:19 am

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Yesterday, June 15:

Targeted an area near the border of Kansas and Nebraska where the surface winds were stronger and more ‘backed’ as opposed to southwest Kansas.  Targeted tornado-warned storms near Colby, Kansas late in the day, that did not produce tornadoes.

Stayed in Colby, KS for the evening.

Today, June 16:

Location:  Colby, KS

Today is a down/ferry day for the TWISTEX group.  Planning to overnight in York, Nebraska.  No operations planned today, but a stray storm is possible in the weak southeast surface flow early this evening.

Tomorrow, June 17:

Wednesday has possibilities for supercell thunderstorms along the eastern Kansas/Nebraska border.  Extreme cape with weak surface features under reasonable mid level flow will likely provide a good environment for supercell storms and possible tornadoes.

Future:

Based on the model forecasts this morning, it appears that the chances of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes increases as the week wears on with the chance of strong tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana on Friday.  Uncertainty with the forecast provides some question as to the actual storm mode on Friday, but based on the forecast this morning, the chances look pretty good.

Looking further out, it appears that there is another significant shortwave that is forecasted to move through the Dakotas by Sunday and Monday.  Understanding that the forecast is a week out, considerable questions remain as to the worthiness of this outlook.

It was a pleasure to have Andres and Brent along with us the past two months, and we look forward to working with you guys in the future.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 14, 2009

June 14, 2009 – 2:33 pm

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Yesterday, June 13:

Intercepted storm northeast of Raton, New Mexico, and followed it to near Rolla, Kansas where the supercell was tornado warned most its life.  Team witnessed a non-supercell tornado northeast of Campo, Colorado, and several funnels in Kansas.  M2/M3 passed several down power poles on 287 between Campo and Springfield, Colorado.  Its unclear if the damage was caused by severe downburst winds or a rain-wrapped tornado.  A persistent, broad rotation indicated by radar did move through the area at the time of the damage.

Numerous 1.5-2 inch hail was noted on several occasions during the intercept.  Team abandoned the mission due to darkness near Hugoton, where a storm merger was taking place.

Team stayed in Elkhart, Kansas.

Today, June 14:

Location:  Elkhart, Kansas

Another active day is in store for the TWISTEX group, as another shortwave progresses through the area.  Appears that the best upper wind profile and energy is in southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas.  Two favored areas of initiation is in store for today.

One is in southwest Kansas where drier air is forecast to push in through the southwest corner of Kansas by mid afternoon.  Thunderstorm initiation should happen around the Garden City-Dodge City corridor.

The other play is the orographic lifting in the higher terrain of southeast Colorado.  Thunderstorm initiation is nearly assured around the Pueblo, Colorado area with the storm motion to the east through the day, entering into Southwest Kansas by early evening.

To keep both areas of interest in play, the group will target somewhere in the Lamar area, and adjust to changing surface conditions during the day.

M1 will be joining the group later this afternoon.

Tomorrow, June 15:

Tomorrow could be an active day, as another piece of upper level energy pushes through southwest Kansas by mid-late afternoon.  Once again, details are a bit murky, as various model data is showing different solutions.  General area seems to be eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Future:

0z model data suggests that reasonable southwest flow will remain within the TWISTEX domain through Friday, June 19 where a ridge begins to build beginning on June 20th.  TWISTEX should have several opportunities for missions through Friday.

After June 20th, hope fades quickly for tornadoes through the midwest. TWISTEX may be down afterwards for several days, with some glimmer of hope at the end of the month/project.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 13, 2009

June 13, 2009 – 11:20 am

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Today, June 13:

Location:  Lakewood, CO

New target of the Raton Mesa area, Oklahoma/Texas panhandle area as opposed to the northeast Colorado area has been chosen this morning due to numerous factors.  Positives include great windfields/helicity and good moisture.  Convective initiation should happen along the Raton Mesa area in the far western Oklahoma panhandle region.  Excellent easterly surface flow with strong southwest mid level flow provides a great environment for supercells.  Big negative is the capping layer–some of the forecast soundings show that some areas are unbreakable.  Target of Clayton-Dumas-Boise City has been selected.  M2 is proceeding towards the target area, and M1 will be departing Minnesota by early afternoon for operations tomorrow.

Tomorrow, June 14:

Tomorrow is clear as mud at the moment, but likely upslope flow within the tri-border area of Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska area.  Reasonable southwesterly flow over entire area is likely, but the finescale details will have to wait.

Future:

Long term outlook looks promising through early week.  Flow pattern begins to change around Wednesday, and it appears that a ridging pattern settles in by late next week.  Sunday/Monday/Tuesday still look promising for operations.

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TWISTEX fielding: June 12, 2009

June 12, 2009 – 9:27 am

A brief synopsis of our operation for the next couple of days:

Yesterday, June 11:

Intercepted tornado-warned supercell just east of Pueblo, CO.  Followed the storm to Lamar, where the team broke off the mission due to nightfall.  Several attempts at tornado genesis were noted on the north side of the HP storm near Ordway and Glenn Martin Reservoir, but circulation couldn’t translate to the surface(that we saw).  Collected MM data as Probe parked under large scale rain-wrapped circulation on highway 287 ~10 miles south of Lamar, CO as it passed to the east at nightfall.  2″+ hail was noted with the passage of the core.  Storm was tornado-warned for over 100+ miles.  Storm had a beautiful hook echo through much of it’s life.

Both vehicles collected MM data of the storm from east of Pueblo through Lamar, CO.

Returned to Lakewood, CO

Today, June 12:

Location:  Lakewood, CO

Down day for TWISTEX as the overall pattern has rather weak surface flow over much of the TWISTEX domain.  No mission briefs are planned.

Participating crews plan to rest up today, as the following week appear to be very busy.

I Plan to address several instrumentation issues today, along with backing up data/video, and to get vehicles serviced.

Tomorrow, June 13:

Models suggest that an active day is in store for the tri-border area of Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming area for strong upslope flow both at the surface and at 850 mb.  55 degree dewpoints should be adequate for the higher terrain.  Participating teams plan to depart at 1 PM with weather briefing at noon tomorrow.

Future:

Model data suggests excellent mission opportunities beginning on Sunday in southwest Kansas, and Tuesday in the Oklahoma panhandle.  Great mid-level southwesterly flow is emerging into the plains with good surface cyclogenesis in response across the high plains of southwest Kansas and the Texas panhandle.  Teams should be prepared for a 5-7 day multi-day mission beginning on Sunday somewhere in southwest Kansas.

On or about June 21, it appears that the summertime ridge will begin to build across the midwest, likely ending most threats of significant severe across the midwest for quite a while.  It is possible that the last few days of June may provide some opportunities, but that is too far out to even discuss.

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