Archive for May, 2007

TWISTEX fielding status: May 31, 2007

Thursday, May 31st, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO Model data shows zonal/slight NW flow for SE CO, SW KS, with weaker flow into the TX panhandle.  Surface low as depicted by NAM/RUC develops late in the day (0z) over NE NM.  Looks to me like a good setup for a nasty MCS late this evening ...

TWISTEX fielding status: May 30, 2007

Wednesday, May 30th, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO Tornado watches in CO last night, but given the weak upper level winds and the raging cold front, no 'targetable' tornadoes were reported. Can't remember the last time I did NOT chase a tornado watch in my own back yard. Zonal/NW flow is forecasted over the pre-frontal airmass ...

TWISTEX fielding status: May 29, 2007

Tuesday, May 29th, 2007

All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO 12z model data suggest marginal opportunity in SE CO today.  Shear is weak, but increases by 0z. Low to mid 50 dewpoint moisture forecasted to nose into CO by late today, and with upslope flow, storm with large hail is possible (around 1"). Next wave is still forecasted ...

TWISTEX fielding status: May 27, 2007

Sunday, May 27th, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO 0z model data suggests that North Dakota offers the best shot at severe on Monday, but it appears that the good backed flow quickly evolves to MN by evening.  South Dakota should have some shot at severe, but upper winds/surface features are not aligned, thus chances of ...

TWISTEX fielding update: May 26, 2007

Saturday, May 26th, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO Model data shows next system moving through the northern plains on Monday, with a surface low developing in eastern ND.  Model data consistently shows poor phasing of this system (upper level winds with surface features).  Also looks like just a poor one day shot, as Tuesday  shows ...

TWISTEX fielding status: May 25, 2007

Friday, May 25th, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO Returned home from the last trip. Things appear pretty quiet through the next several days.   Model data suggests a slight possibility for Tuesday, but it appears to be only a single day event, as it quickly moves through.  Will keep an eye on it.  If future model runs ...

TWISTEX fielding status May 24, 2007

Thursday, May 24th, 2007

 All: Current location:  Garden City, KS Last evening, TWISTEX team intercepted two tornadoes about 1 mile east of Lake Fryer in Ochitree County about 6:40 CDT.  Unfortunately, the intent was to gather hail data in the north side of the HP storm within the inflow notch (typically where large hail is...and sometimes ...

TWISTEX fielding update: May 23, 2007

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007

 All: Current location:  Great Bend, KS Last evening, TWISTEX team intercepted a tornado ~4 miles SW of Hill City.  M3 and probe came within .5 miles, of the tornado, however the road was completely unpassable due to rain soaked roads.  M3 collected near-field data of the tornado. M1, M2 collected near in-situ data ...

TWISTEX fielding status: May 22, 2007

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO RUC model data shows deepening surface low in SE CO, strong 500 winds, reasonable moisture.  Capping will likely be an issue as 700 mb temps are a bit warm.  Latest thinking that initiation should happen between I-70 and DDC. ISU: On the road now-mobile mesonets checked out fine last ...

TWISTEX fielding update: May 21, 2007

Monday, May 21st, 2007

 All: Current location:  Lakewood, CO 0z data continues to show the Monday potential mis-timed, thus likely to be a forced squall line in NE and SD.  Panhandle option shows very weak 500 mb flow with little/no trope flow. ISU: Tuesday continues to look the best.  It is your choice if you wish to pre-deploy ...