Archive for May, 2007
Thursday, May 31st, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
Model data shows zonal/slight NW flow for SE CO, SW KS, with weaker flow into the TX panhandle. Surface low as depicted by NAM/RUC develops late in the day (0z) over NE NM. Looks to me like a good setup for a nasty MCS late this evening ...
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Wednesday, May 30th, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
Tornado watches in CO last night, but given the weak upper level winds and the raging cold front, no 'targetable' tornadoes were reported. Can't remember the last time I did NOT chase a tornado watch in my own back yard.
Zonal/NW flow is forecasted over the pre-frontal airmass ...
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Tuesday, May 29th, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
12z model data suggest marginal opportunity in SE CO today. Shear is weak, but increases by 0z. Low to mid 50 dewpoint moisture forecasted to nose into CO by late today, and with upslope flow, storm with large hail is possible (around 1").
Next wave is still forecasted ...
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Sunday, May 27th, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
0z model data suggests that North Dakota offers the best shot at severe on Monday, but it appears that the good backed flow quickly evolves to MN by evening. South Dakota should have some shot at severe, but upper winds/surface features are not aligned, thus chances of ...
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Saturday, May 26th, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
Model data shows next system moving through the northern plains on Monday, with a surface low developing in eastern ND. Model data consistently shows poor phasing of this system (upper level winds with surface features). Also looks like just a poor one day shot, as Tuesday shows ...
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Friday, May 25th, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
Returned home from the last trip.
Things appear pretty quiet through the next several days. Model data suggests a slight possibility for Tuesday, but it appears to be only a single day event, as it quickly moves through. Will keep an eye on it. If future model runs ...
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Thursday, May 24th, 2007
All:
Current location: Garden City, KS
Last evening, TWISTEX team intercepted two tornadoes about 1 mile east of Lake Fryer in Ochitree County about 6:40 CDT. Unfortunately, the intent was to gather hail data in the north side of the HP storm within the inflow notch (typically where large hail is...and sometimes ...
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Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007
All:
Current location: Great Bend, KS
Last evening, TWISTEX team intercepted a tornado ~4 miles SW of Hill City. M3 and probe came within .5 miles, of the tornado, however the road was completely unpassable due to rain soaked roads. M3 collected near-field data of the tornado.
M1, M2 collected near in-situ data ...
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Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
RUC model data shows deepening surface low in SE CO, strong 500 winds, reasonable moisture. Capping will likely be an issue as 700 mb temps are a bit warm. Latest thinking that initiation should happen between I-70 and DDC.
ISU:
On the road now-mobile mesonets checked out fine last ...
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Monday, May 21st, 2007
All:
Current location: Lakewood, CO
0z data continues to show the Monday potential mis-timed, thus likely to be a forced squall line in NE and SD. Panhandle option shows very weak 500 mb flow with little/no trope flow.
ISU:
Tuesday continues to look the best. It is your choice if you wish to pre-deploy ...
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